My prayers are with all the families, friends and businesses in both regions!
More technical information as provided by cdema.org – Tropical Weather Systems.
Current tropical activity report directly from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:
Paulette: Tune into the following list of emergency Bermuda: Bermuda Radio (call-sign ZBR) is a weather radio station in Bermuda working under the Government of Bermuda. Bermuda has only one station dedicated purely for weather, on 162.55 MHz from Hamilton, now operated by the Bermuda Weather Service with tropical weather forecasts from NOAA.
…RAIN BANDS OF PAULETTE BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORMnFORCE WINDS TO BERMUDA…
…CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT…
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bermuda. Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and winds will steadily increase through the evening. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Bermuda late tonight and will continue into Monday morning.
A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
At 8 p.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Paulette was located about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Bermuda. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda early Monday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Multiple observing stations on Bermuda have reported tropical-storm-force wind gusts during the past hour. Strengthening is forecast to occur, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.
Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.
Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. AST – www.hurricanes.gov
…SALLY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SLOW DOWN…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING ON MONDAY…
*** A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama State Line, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
*** A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas incl. metropolitan New Orleans
*** A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama State Line to the Alabama/Florida State Line
*** A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida State Line
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City
*** A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight, and are expected within the warning area beginning Monday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office – www.weather.gov
The risk of isolated tornadoes will begin to increase Monday afternoon and evening over parts of the western Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana.
At 7 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located about 160 miles (260 km) south of Panama City, Florida, and about 195 miles (315 km) east-southeast of the mouth of the MIssissippi River. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slower west-northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night, followed by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area Monday night. Sally is expected to move slowly northward near the southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi coasts through Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with highergusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the east of the center. Strengthening is expected to occur during the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
– Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft
– Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…4-7 ft
– Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL State Line…4-7 ft
– Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…4-6 ft
– MS/AL Border to AL/FL State Line incl. Mobile Bay…2-4 ft
– AL/FL State Line to Chassahowitzka, FL incl. Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
– Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…1-3 ft
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.
Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast Monday into Wednesday. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16 inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week. This rainfall will likely result in new widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 p.m. CDT- www.hurricanes.gov
La Niña is officially declared as the cause of such an active hurricane season this year, with names running out soon. Right now, there are four major tropical areas: Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm Sally, and tropical disturbance number twenty. With two unnumbered disturbances, the Atlantic is one under the theoretical maximum saturation of disturbances possible as per Dr. Gnanadesikan, if they all were to turn into hurricanes at the same time. Nonetheless, this is a very active season, considering it started off quietly and with dust plumes in June and July.
Sharing safety measures from my previous 2018 blog post: Tips For Playing it Safe During a Hurricane: Here Comes Florence!
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