My prayers are with all the families, friends and businesses in both regions!
More technical information as provided by cdema.org – Tropical Weather Systems.
Current tropical activity report directly from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:
↓ At 8:19 am ↓
Sally: This storm is covering a widespread area of the Gulf from Chassihowitzka, Florida all the way to Burns Point, Louisiana. The Bay east of the mouth of the Mississippi River is at high risk for intensified storm surge as there is no relief for water to go anywhere but inland. Too many miles of emergency radio would need to be described, check out for your local listings here: Nationwide Station Listing Using Broadcast Frequencies. Start preparing for conditions and evacuation for the storm by Monday night to Tuesday morning. Stay tuned for more storm watch and warning information. Finish boarding up now and evacuate as soon as you possibly can. The storm could subside, but you cannot plan on it. Have an escape plan. All residents along the Gulf Coast should have a hurricane plan in action or visit https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness. Please adhere to safety measures and stay out of the way of danger! Current posting from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:
…SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO…
…LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE TODAY…
*** A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida State LIne
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay
*** A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama State LIne, as well as Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan NewnOrleans
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama State Liner to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City
*** A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama State Line to the Alabama/Florida State LIne
*** A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area starting late today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area during the next few hours, and are expected within the warning area beginning this morning. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office – www.weather.gov
A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.
At 7 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located about 115 miles (185 km) east-southeast of the mouth of the MIssissippi River. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern
Louisiana this afternoon, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km)
south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported peak
sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h). Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
– Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft
– Ocean Springs to MS/AL State LIne…5-8 ft
– MS/AL State Line to AL/FL State Line incl. Mobile Bay…4-6 ft
– Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…4-6 ft
– Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River…3-5 ft
– AL/FL State LIne to Navarre including Pensacola Bay…2-4 ft
– Navarre to Chassahowitzka including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
– Burns Point to Port Fourchon…1-3 ft
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.
Sally is expected to be a slow-moving system as it approaches land producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 a.m. CDT – www.hurricanes.gov
..EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA…
…HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AFFECTING THE ISLAND…
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bermuda. Hurricane conditions are returning to Bermuda from the south and southwest as the southern eyewall passes over the island soon. Hurricane conditions should subside around mid-morning, but tropical storm conditions will persist into late-morning and possibly early afternoon.
A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
At 8 a.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Paulette was located about 40 miles (65 km) north of Bermuda. Paulette is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected soon and should continue into this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and should continue through Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Hurricane-force winds are returning as the southern portion of Paulette’s eyewall continues to move over the island. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into the early afternoon across the entire island. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday.
Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.
Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 a.m. AST – www.hurricanes.gov
La Niña is officially declared as the cause of such an active hurricane season this year, with names running out soon. Right now, there are four major tropical areas: Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm Sally, and tropical disturbance number twenty. With two unnumbered disturbances, the Atlantic is one under the theoretical maximum saturation of disturbances possible as per Dr. Gnanadesikan, if they all were to turn into hurricanes at the same time. Nonetheless, this is a very active season, considering it started off quietly and with dust plumes in June and July.
Sharing safety measures from my previous 2018 blog post: Tips For Playing it Safe During a Hurricane: Here Comes Florence!
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