My prayers are with all the families, friends and businesses in all areas!
So many systems, so much water! The latest update on two storms, plus other activity: Tropical Storm Beta in Texas and off-shore Atlantic Rip-Tides with Hurricane Teddy….
More technical information as provided by cdema.org – Tropical Weather Systems.
Current tropical activity report directly from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the far western Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast, and on Hurricane Teddy, located more than 100 miles east of Bermuda. www.hurricanes.gov
Elsewhere on the Monday afternoon, Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean about 350 miles south of the Azores. Shower and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized today, and the low could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today or tonight while the system moves eastward at 10 to 15 mph. It has a high (80 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and five days. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France at
There’s a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located over southeastern Florida, the central Bahamas, and the Straits of Florida is associated with a frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to continue moving southward over central and western Cuba during the next couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday. Upper-level winds are expected to become marginally conducive for development by Thursday and Friday when the system is forecast to approach the Florida Keys and South Florida. It has a near zero chance of formation during the next 48 hous and a low (20 percent) chance during the next five days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall can be expected across portions of extreme southeastern Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and tonight, and over western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. For more information on this disturbance, see forecast products issued by your national meteorological service.
…SLOW-MOVING BETA GETTING CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST…
…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL AREA…
*** The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from Baffin Bay to south of Port Aransas Texas.
*** A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this evening in portions of the tropical storm warning area. A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office www.weather.gov
Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding.For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office –www.weather.gov
At 4 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located off the Texas ocast about 25 miles (35 km) southeast of Port O’Connor and about 30 miles (45 km) south-southwest of Matagorda. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast are expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas today and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain near or just offshore the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A Texas TCOON observing site at Port O’Connor, Texas, has recently measured a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
– Port Aransas, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
– Sabine Pass, TX to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Lake Calcasieu, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas…1-3 ft
– Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay… 1-3 ft
– Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX…1-2 ft
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 p.m. CDT with an intermediate advisory at 7 p.m. CDT – www.hurricanes.gov
…TEDDY ABOUT TO GET LARGER AND STRONGER NORTH OF BERMUDA…
…LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS…
*** The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the south coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon.
***A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
* Meat Cove to Tidnish
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Magdalen Islands
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
Tropical-storm-conditions could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.
Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.
At 5 p.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Teddy was located about 175 miles (280 km) east-northeast of Bermuda and about790 miles (1275 km) south of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Teddy is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is expected tonight followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the north-northeast and move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone before reaching Nova Scotia.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. AST with an intermediate advisory at 8 p.m. AST – www.hurricanes.gov
La Niña is officially declared as the cause of such an active hurricane season this year, with names running out soon. Right now, there are four major tropical areas: Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm Sally, and tropical disturbance number twenty. With two unnumbered disturbances, the Atlantic is one under the theoretical maximum saturation of disturbances possible as per Dr. Gnanadesikan, if they all were to turn into hurricanes at the same time. Nonetheless, this is a very active season, considering it started off quietly and with dust plumes in June and July.
Sharing safety measures from my previous 2018 blog post: Tips For Playing it Safe During a Hurricane: Here Comes Florence!
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