My prayers are with all the families, friends and businesses in all areas!
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The latest update on two storms, plus other activity: Tropical Storm Beta in Texas and off-shore Atlantic Rip-Tides with Hurricane Teddy; and other activity….
More technical information as provided by cdema.org – Tropical Weather Systems.
Current tropical activity report directly from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:
↓ At 10:00am ↓
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the far western Gulf of Mexico, and on Hurricane Teddy, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda.
Elsewhere on this Monday morning, Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms, not far to the northeast of its center of circulation. Some development is still possible, and the system could become a tropical or subtropical cyclone today or tomorrow while it moves eastward at 10 to 15 mph. It has a medium (60 percent) chance for formation during the next 48 hours and five days. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France at
http://vigiprevi.meteofrance.com/PREV/V/index.html .
There’s an area of showers and thunderstorms located over southeastern Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the Straits of Florida, associated with a weak frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to move southward over central and western Cuba during the next couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday. Upper-level winds are expected to become marginally conducive for development by Thursday and Friday when the disturbance is forecast to approach the Florida Keys and South Florida. It has a near zero chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance during the next five days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall can be expected across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and tonight, and over western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. For more information on this system, see forecast products issued by your national meteorological service. www.hurricanes.gov
…BETA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST…
…EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON…
*** A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu.
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana.
*** A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area later today.
A tornado or two could occur today and tonight, near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.
Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office –www.weather.gov
At 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located off the Texas ocast about 55 miles (90 km) southeast of Port O’Connor and about 75 miles (120 km) south-southwest of Freeport. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast are expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas today and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Data from the aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A Texas TCOON observing site at Port O’Connor, Texas, has recently measured a wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h). A NOAA buoy located just east of Galveston, Texas, has reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (66 km/h) during the past couple of hours. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
– San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay…3-5 ft
– Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, & Matagorda Bay…2-4 ft
– Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake…2-4 ft
– Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including – Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas…1-3 ft
– Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay… 1-3 ft
– Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX…1-2 ft
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 4 p.m. CDT with an intermediate advisory at 1 p.m. CDT – www.hurricanes.gov
…TEDDY’S HUGE WAVE FIELD EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda today.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon in the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.
At 11 a.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Teddy was located about 150 miles (240 km) east-southeast of Bermuda and about 935 miles (1500 km) south of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Teddy is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north overnight and north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the north-northeast as it approaches Nova Scotia on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 5 p.m. AST with an intermediate advisory at 2 p.m. AST – www.hurricanes.gov
…WILFRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC…
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
At 11 a.m. AST, the center of now Tropical Depression Wilfred was located about 1135 miles (1830 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading toward the west or west-northwestward for the next few days until dissipation.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Wilfred should weaken to a remnant low within a couple days.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 5 p.m. AST – www.hurricanes.gov
La Niña is officially declared as the cause of such an active hurricane season this year, with names running out soon. Right now, there are four major tropical areas: Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm Sally, and tropical disturbance number twenty. With two unnumbered disturbances, the Atlantic is one under the theoretical maximum saturation of disturbances possible as per Dr. Gnanadesikan, if they all were to turn into hurricanes at the same time. Nonetheless, this is a very active season, considering it started off quietly and with dust plumes in June and July.
Sharing safety measures from my previous 2018 blog post: Tips For Playing it Safe During a Hurricane: Here Comes Florence!
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