My prayers are with all the families, friends and businesses!
An evening update….
More technical information as provided by cdema.org – Tropical Weather Systems.
Current tropical activity report directly from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:
↓ At 6:19 pm ↓
Sally: Check out for your local listings here: Nationwide Station Listing Using Broadcast Frequencies. Please read the emergency post. Have an escape plan. All residents along the Gulf Coast should have a hurricane plan in action or visit https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness. Please adhere to safety measures and stay out of the way of danger! Current posting from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:
…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…
…HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST..
*** A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida, and Mobile Bay
*** A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* East of Bay St. Louis to Navarre Florida
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Bay St. Louis westward to Grand Isle Louisiana
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area this evening. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and will continue through Wednesday night. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A few tornadoes may occur this evening through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office – www.weather.gov
At 4 p.m. CDT, the center of Hurricane Sally was located about 85 miles (135 km) south of Mobile, Alabama, and abouit 90 miles (140 km) southwest of Pensacola, Florida. Sally is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected tonight, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A slightly faster northeastward motion is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday.
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS Doppler radar indicates that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A NOAA buoy located about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Mobile, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) within the past couple of hours. An observing site at the Okaloosa Fishing Pier in Florida has reported sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
– Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL State Line incl. Mobile Bay…4-6 ft
– Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne…3-5 ft
– MS/AL State Line to Dauphin Island, AL…3-5 ft
– AL/FL State Line to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay…3-5 ft
– Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border…2-4 ft
– Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…2-4 ft
– Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrews Bay…1-3 ft
– Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…1-3 ft
Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 30 inches, along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 p.m. CDT with an intermediate advisory at 7 p.m. CDT – www.hurricanes.gov
Other Tropical Activity: Here is a report of upcoming tropical activity:
…VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN…
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
At 5 p.m. AST, the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located about 640 miles (1030 km) northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forecast speed is forecast to occur tonight and Wednesday, followed by a westward motion through dissipation.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Weakening is forecast to take place, and Vicky is expected to become a tropical
depression on Wednesday, weaken to a remnant low Wednesday night, and dissipate by Friday.
The next complete advisory will be issued at 11 p.m. AST – www.hurricanes.gov
…STEADY TEDDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT…
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
At 5 p.m. AST, the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located about 895 miles (1440 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A steady northwest motion at 10 to 15 mph is expected through the end of the week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. Strengthening is forecast t to occur, and Teddy could become a hurricane tonight, and be near major hurricane strength within a few days.
Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11p.m. AST – www.hurricanes.gov
La Niña is officially declared as the cause of such an active hurricane season this year, with names running out soon. Right now, there are four major tropical areas: Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm Sally, and tropical disturbance number twenty. With two unnumbered disturbances, the Atlantic is one under the theoretical maximum saturation of disturbances possible as per Dr. Gnanadesikan, if they all were to turn into hurricanes at the same time. Nonetheless, this is a very active season, considering it started off quietly and with dust plumes in June and July.
Sharing safety measures from my previous 2018 blog post: Tips For Playing it Safe During a Hurricane: Here Comes Florence!
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