My prayers are with all the families, friends and businesses in all areas!
Latest update on Two storms and other activity: Tropical Storm Beta in Texas and off-shore Atlantic Rip-Tides with Teddy, plus other activity….
More technical information as provided by cdema.org – Tropical Weather Systems.
Current tropical activity report directly from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:
Atlantic Tropical Report:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Wilfred, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Elsewhere on this Saturday morning, Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is moving southward and is now located a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to continue southward for the next day or so and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical characteristics by early next week while it moves little. It has a medium (50 percent) chance of formation during the next five days. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France – http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2?fbclid=IwAR3ekpkSn6reGT67m0ODqExwFE019wDUk7P11NaK7HI_mtHLRJ5ciPr_OJU
Beta: Check out for your local listings here: Nationwide Station Listing Using Broadcast Frequencies. So not venture out into flooded waters where you cannot see the bottom of the water, due to the fact that sharp objects can be floating or worse yet, missing manhole covers. Have an escape plan. All residents along the Gulf Coast should have a hurricane plan in action or visit https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness. Please adhere to safety measures and stay out of the way of danger! Current posting from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:
…BETA NOW STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST…
*** A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay
*** A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay, and for High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana including Sabine Lake and Lake Calcasieu
*** A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas.
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana
*** A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for south of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande and from east of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night.Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early astonight, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast Sunday night or Monday.
At 4 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located about 320 miles (510 km) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Beta has been nearly stationary for the past several hours. A westward drift is expected tonight, followed by a slow motion toward the west-northwest that should continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast Sunday and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle. A ship near the center of Beta recently reported winds of 54 mph (87 km/h). Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Beta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the Texas coast.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
– Baffin Bay, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, San Antonio Bay…2-4 ft
– Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay…1-3 ft
– Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, & Lake Maurepas…1-3 ft
– Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX…1-2 ft
Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 p.m. CDT with an intermediate advisory at 7 p.m. CDT – www.hurricanes.gov
…TEDDY EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE EARLY NEXT WEEK…
…LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda beginning Sunday evening and could linger into Monday night.
Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 5 p.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Teddy was located about 475 miles (765 km) southeast of Bermuda. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is expected by Sunday evening, followed by a faster northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and the center will pass just east of the island Monday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase substantially starting on Sunday night. Some slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy’s maximum winds is forecast to begin early next week.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. AST with an intermediate advisory at 8 p.m. AST – www.hurricanes.gov
…TINY WILFRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
At 5 p.m. AST, the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located about 1480 miles (2380 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a westward motion late Sunday and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. Little change in strength is expected to occur during the next day or so. Weakening is expected on Monday, and Wilfred is expected to dissipate by Tuesday.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. AST – www.hurricanes.gov
…ALPHA MAKES LANDFALL IN PORTUGAL…
…EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY…
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Portugal should monitor the progress of Alpha. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.
At 9 p.m.GMT (5 p.m. EDT) the center of Subtropical Storm Alpha was located inland about 120 miles (195 km) north-northeast of Lisbon, Portugal. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next day or so. Alpha should move across northern Portugal and Spain before dissipating on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The storm should weaken into a depression overnight and a remnant low pressure area on Saturday.
Alpha is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 3 inches (75 mm) over the northern portion of Portugal and into west-central Spain through Saturday morning.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 3 a.m. GMT (11 p.m. EDT) – www.nhc.noaa.gov
La Niña is officially declared as the cause of such an active hurricane season this year, with names running out soon. Right now, there are four major tropical areas: Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm Sally, and tropical disturbance number twenty. With two unnumbered disturbances, the Atlantic is one under the theoretical maximum saturation of disturbances possible as per Dr. Gnanadesikan, if they all were to turn into hurricanes at the same time. Nonetheless, this is a very active season, considering it started off quietly and with dust plumes in June and July.
Sharing safety measures from my previous 2018 blog post: Tips For Playing it Safe During a Hurricane: Here Comes Florence!
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