My prayers are with all the families, friends and businesses in all areas!
The latest update on two storms, plus other activity: Tropical Storm Beta in Texas and off-shore Atlantic Rip-Tides with Hurricane Teddy; and other activity….
More technical information as provided by cdema.org – Tropical Weather Systems.
Current tropical activity report directly from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:
Atlantic Tropical Report:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico; on Hurricane Teddy, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda; and on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Wilfred, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Elsewhere on this Sunday afternoon, Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred miles south of the Azores and continues to produce disorganized shower activity to the northwest and north of its center of circulation. This system
is drifting southward over marginally warm waters and is expected to begin moving eastward in a couple of days. The cyclone could develop tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or two. It has a medium (60 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and five days. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-…/…/grandlarge/metarea2
…BETA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST…
…OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN…
*** A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu.
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana.
*** A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas tonight through early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday.
A tornado or two could occur Monday near the middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.
Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office www.weather.gov
At 4 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located about 155 miles (250 km) east-southeast of Port O’Connor, Texas. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and will likely move inland by Monday night, and remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.
Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. Little change in strength is forecast to occur during the next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
– San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay…3-5 ft
– Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, & Matagorda Bay…2-4 ft
– Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine
– Lake and Calcasieu Lake…2-4 ft
– Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
– Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
– Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and – Baffin Bay… 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX…1-2 ft
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 p.m. CDT with an intermediate advisory at 7 p.m. CDT – www.hurricanes.gov
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA…
…DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS…
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda tonight and could continue into Monday night.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Canso. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.
At 5 p.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Teddy was located about 245 miles (390 km) south-southeast of Bermuda. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and Teddy is then forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). . Little change in strength is forecast, and the system is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. AST with an intermediate advisory at 8 p.m. AST – www.hurricanes.gov
..WILFRED REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC…
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
At 5 p.m. AST, the center of Tropical Depression Wilfred was located about 1030 miles (1660 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading toward the west or west-northwestward for the next couple days until dissipation.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Wilfred should weaken to a remnant low within a day or two, but could also degenerate into a trough of low pressure during that time.
The next advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. AST – www.hurricanes.gov
La Niña is officially declared as the cause of such an active hurricane season this year, with names running out soon. Right now, there are four major tropical areas: Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm Sally, and tropical disturbance number twenty. With two unnumbered disturbances, the Atlantic is one under the theoretical maximum saturation of disturbances possible as per Dr. Gnanadesikan, if they all were to turn into hurricanes at the same time. Nonetheless, this is a very active season, considering it started off quietly and with dust plumes in June and July.
Sharing safety measures from my previous 2018 blog post: Tips For Playing it Safe During a Hurricane: Here Comes Florence!
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